Retirement pay explained: what our calculator's numbers mean

"Retirement pay" is our name for the most you could spend each week, the same amount in today's dollars every year, from the day you retire until your planning age, after tax. It counts NZ Super, any work or rental income, and a steady draw from your KiwiSaver and other savings. We test your plan in 1,000 simulated markets and show the pay that 9 in 10 of them can hold. For our example couple, both 55, that is about $1,052 a week for life to 95: $854.08 of NZ Super plus about $198 from savings. Beside it we show three more numbers: the pay in a very poor market (the worst 1 in 20), the typical market, and fixed returns. This guide explains each one, how to read the fan chart, and where to go next. Rules checked 12 November 2026.

What retirement pay means

Most retirement calculators ask how big a lump sum you need. We think the more useful question is the one you will actually live with: how much can I spend each week? So our headline is a weekly figure, after tax and in today's dollars, that stays the same in real terms from retirement to the end of your plan.

It is built from three parts:

• NZ Super. From 1 April 2026, $854.08 a week for a couple who both qualify, $555.15 for a single person living alone, or $512.45 for a single person sharing, all after tax at M and rising with prices. Our NZ Super rates guide lists every rate, and the eligibility guide covers who qualifies and when. The Winter Energy Payment is optional; our Winter Energy Payment guide explains it.
• Other income after tax. Part-time wages and rent, taxed on top of NZ Super. Our NZ Super and tax guide and working after 65 guide cover how.
• A steady draw from savings. KiwiSaver, which opens at 65 (see KiwiSaver at 65), and any savings outside it. The draw is set so the money lasts to your planning age.

"Today's dollars" means every figure is in what money buys now. Inflation of 2% a year is built in, as on KiwiSaver statements, so $1,052 at 80 buys what $1,052 buys today. Our inflation in retirement guide explains why that matters.

The four numbers

Every result shows the same four figures. For our example couple, both 55, with $250,000 in KiwiSaver between them and $50,000 of other savings, retiring at 65 and planning to 95:

Why 9 in 10, not the average

The typical market is a coin toss: in half of all markets you would do worse. If you planned on $1,154 a week, your plan would last to 95 in only about 50% of our markets. At $1,100 a week it lasts in about 74%; at $1,200, about 29%. The headline is the highest pay that lasts in 90% of them. It is a reasonable balance between spending enough and not running out.

The worst 1 in 20

For a tougher test, the very poor market figure is the pay that holds in 19 of 20 markets. For our couple it is $1,036, only $17 below the headline, because NZ Super is most of their pay and NZ Super does not depend on markets. For people with larger savings relative to NZ Super, the gap is wider.

Fixed returns

The fixed-return view uses the returns on KiwiSaver annual statements (FMA's Schedule 7A assumptions) every single year: from 1.5% to 5.5% a year after fees and tax before retirement depending on fund type (3.5% for balanced), and 2.5% after 65. It is a useful cross-check with your KiwiSaver statement and with our sister KiwiSaver site, but real markets do not deliver a smooth return, which is why it sits above the headline.

How the simulated markets work

For each of 1,000 markets, the engine draws a return for every year. Returns are random around the Schedule 7A averages, with year to year swings that are our assumption (9% for a balanced fund before retirement, 6% after, both editable). Inflation is held at 2%. Then, for each market, it finds the highest level weekly pay that lasts until your planning age. Sorting those 1,000 answers gives the four numbers: roughly the 100th lowest is the headline, roughly the 50th lowest is the very poor market, and the middle one is the typical market.

The order of returns matters as much as their average. A fall in the first years of retirement, when your savings are largest, hurts much more than the same fall at 85. Our sequence of returns risk guide explains why, and the fund type in retirement guide looks at how your fund changes the spread. Moving our couple to a balanced fund after retirement (3.5% average) barely changes the headline ($1,058) but lifts the typical market to $1,189.

Returns are after fees and tax at the default 28% rate. Someone living mainly on NZ Super is usually on 17.5%; our tax on retirement savings guide explains the PIR.

How to read the fan chart

The fan chart shows your total savings by age across all 1,000 markets, if you spend your retirement pay. It has four layers:

• The line is the middle result: the typical market.
• The inner band is the middle half of markets: a quarter do better than its top edge, a quarter worse than its bottom.
• The outer band is the middle 80%: only 1 in 10 markets ends above it, and 1 in 10 below.
• The dashed line is fixed returns.

Here is what the bands show for our example couple at a pay of $1,052 a week, in today's dollars:

Two things to notice. The bottom of the fan reaches zero at 95: that is the definition of the 9 in 10 pay, which uses up the savings in the worst 1 in 10 markets right at the end. And in a typical market, the couple still has about $170,000 at 95. That is the price of safety: in most markets you leave money unspent. Whether that is an inheritance or a buffer for care costs is your call. Our lump sums and inheritance guide touches on both.

Your planning age

The default is 95. KiwiSaver statements and Sorted use 90, but for a couple both 55, Stats NZ's cohort tables give about a 74% chance that at least one of them reaches 90, and about 38% for 95. Our how long will I live guide has the odds by birth year.

Planning to 100 costs our couple only $29 a week compared with 95, because NZ Super keeps paying for life. If you outlive your plan, you are left with NZ Super. Some people cover that risk with an annuity; see our annuities guide.

Using your retirement pay

Retirement pay is a planning number, not a promise. Here is how to use it, with the guide for each step:

1. Compare it with your spending. Massey University's guidelines are the usual benchmark; see our Massey guidelines guide and build your own with the retirement budget guide. If you are short, the how much do I need guide shows the gap as a lump sum.
2. Choose your date. Retiring earlier lowers it, and before 65 KiwiSaver is locked; see retiring before 65 and our retirement checklist.
3. Choose how to draw it. The headline assumes the same amount each week. Other approaches trade steadiness for flexibility: compare them in drawdown strategies explained, guardrails drawdown and our safe withdrawal rate guide.
4. Plan as a household. Couples should read couples retirement planning and when a partner dies.
5. Check your housing. The figures change a lot if you rent, carry a mortgage or move: see renting in retirement, retiring with a mortgage, downsizing and reverse mortgages.
6. Check the rules that could change. Moving abroad changes NZ Super; see NZ Super and moving overseas. Election proposals such as age 67 are NOT LAW; see our 2026 election guide.

A single person aged 55, earning $70,000 with $150,000 in KiwiSaver and $40,000 of other savings, has a retirement pay of about $673 a week ($555.15 of NZ Super plus about $118 from savings), $663 in a very poor market, $735 in a typical market and $744 with fixed returns. Try your own in the retirement calculator; the methodology page sets out every assumption.

This is general information, not financial advice.

Questions

What does retirement pay mean?

The most you could spend each week, after tax and in today's dollars, the same every year from retirement to your planning age. It includes NZ Super, other income and a steady draw from savings.

Why do you use 9 in 10 markets?

Because a typical market is a coin toss: half the time you would do worse. The headline is the highest weekly pay that lasts to your planning age in 900 of our 1,000 simulated markets.

What is the "very poor market" figure?

The pay that lasts in 19 of 20 simulated markets: what you could spend if your retirement met the worst 1 in 20 markets. It is a tougher test than the headline.

Why is the fixed-return figure higher than the headline?

Fixed returns give the same average return every year, with no bad years at the wrong time. Real markets swing, and a fall early in retirement does lasting damage, so a plan that must survive most markets has to spend a little less.

Is my NZ Super included?

Yes. NZ Super at the net rates from 1 April 2026, rising with prices, is part of the pay. It is paid for life and does not depend on markets.