Conservative, balanced or growth after 65? Fund choice in retirement

Choosing a fund after 65 is a trade between a higher typical income and a narrower range of outcomes. In our engine, $300,000 at 65 supports a level $158 a week to 95 in 9 of 10 markets in a conservative fund, $157 in a balanced fund and $155 in a growth fund. Almost the same. What changes is everything around that figure: the typical market rises from $201 to $244 a week as you take more risk, while a very poor market (1 in 20) falls from $147 to $135. The returns behind these figures are the government's Schedule 7A assumptions; the swings are ours, and we say so. Rules checked 12 November 2026.

The five fund types

KiwiSaver and most managed funds in New Zealand are grouped into five types by the share of growth assets they hold. Growth assets are, in Sorted's words, "shares, commercial property and some derivatives"; the rest is mostly bonds and cash.

The returns are after fees and tax at 28%, from Schedule 7A of the Financial Markets Conduct Regulations 2014, the assumptions every KiwiSaver statement uses. The swings are standard deviations of yearly returns that we have chosen for our simulations. They are not official figures, and you can change them on every calculator.

At 31 March 2026, the FMA's KiwiSaver Annual Report 2026 shows growth funds held 49% of KiwiSaver money, balanced funds (including default) 27% and conservative funds 15%.

The official 2.5% after 65

Schedule 7A uses a single return after 65, 2.5% a year after fees and tax, for every fund type. That is the figure behind the "about $X a week until 90" line on your KiwiSaver statement.

Sorted's retirement calculator takes a different view and assumes 3.5% (a balanced fund) throughout retirement. Our calculators default to the 2.5% so that we agree with KiwiSaver statements and KiwiSaver Calculator NZ. On every tool you can instead choose a fund type for after you retire. We call the default "standard": the 2.5% average with the conservative fund's 6% swing.

After 2% inflation, 2.5% is a real return of only about 0.5% a year. A balanced fund's 3.5% is about 1.5%, and a growth fund's 4.5% about 2.5%.

Conservative, balanced and growth compared

We ran the same person through our 1,000 simulated markets with each fund type after 65: single, $300,000 at 65, taking the same amount each week in today's dollars until 95. The figures are what the savings pay on top of NZ Super.

All figures are weekly. The "standard" row is the same as a conservative fund in our settings. Three things stand out:

1. The fixed-return figure flatters growth. With a steady 4.5% every year, a growth fund pays $270 a week. Real markets do not deliver steady returns, and the typical simulated market gives $244.
2. The 9 in 10 figure barely moves. $158, $157, $155. The higher average return is cancelled out by the bigger swings when you plan for a poor run.
3. The worst cases get worse. In a very poor market, growth gives $135 a week against $147 for conservative.

So if you plan on our 9 in 10 basis, taking more risk after 65 does not raise your safe spending. It raises your chance of ending up with more, and of leaving more behind, at the cost of a worse result if markets go badly. Add NZ Super of $555.15 a week for a single person living alone and the 9 in 10 totals are $713, $712 and $710.

What the swings mean in practice

A fund's swing tells you how bumpy the ride is. Using our assumptions, here is how often each fund type has a year that loses money before inflation, and how bad a 1 in 20 year is:

On $300,000, a 1 in 20 year in a growth fund is a fall of about $42,000; in a conservative fund about $21,000. The chance of some loss in a year is similar across all three. What differs is the size.

Our simulations use a lognormal model, a standard choice. Real markets sometimes have worse falls than such a model expects, so treat the very poor figures as a guide, not a floor.

Big early falls matter most once you are drawing down. Our sequence of returns guide shows why.

Your KiwiSaver statement and our figures

Your KiwiSaver annual statement turns your projected balance into a weekly income from 65 to 90 at the fixed 2.5% return, rounded to the nearest $10. For every $100,000 that is $81.44 a week, shown as about $80. For our $300,000 example it is about $244 a week.

Our figures for the same $300,000 are lower for two reasons, both deliberate:

• We plan to 95, not 90. With fixed returns that alone brings the weekly figure down to $206. Our life expectancy guide explains why.
• We plan for a poor run of markets. The amount that lasts in 9 of 10 markets is $158 a week in the standard fund.

Neither figure is wrong. The statement answers "what does the average path pay to 90?" We answer "what can I count on to 95?" Changing your fund after 65 does not change the statement figure at all, because the return after 65 is the same for every fund. It does change your real outcome, which is why the swings matter.

How to choose

There is no right fund for everyone at 65. Questions that help:

• How long is the money for? Money you will spend in the next few years has little time to recover from a fall. Money for your late 80s has 20 years or more. Some people split their savings: a lower-risk fund for the next few years of withdrawals, and a higher-risk one for later.
• How much does NZ Super cover? If NZ Super pays for essentials, swings in your savings affect extras, not the basics, and you may be comfortable with more risk.
• Could you cope with a fall? A 14% fall in a year is normal for a growth fund now and then. If you would sell in a panic, a lower-risk fund is the better plan.
• Do you want to leave money behind? Taking the 9 in 10 pay from $300,000, the typical market left $70,912 at 95 in the standard fund, $122,824 in balanced and $187,154 in growth. That suits people planning a bequest, but it is not guaranteed.
• What are the fees? Fees come off the return every year. On a 2.5% assumed return, a difference of 0.5% in fees is a fifth of your return.

You can test each choice with your own savings on the retirement pay calculator and the drawdown strategies calculator under "Markets and returns". Sorted's fund finder lets you compare fees and fund types.

This is general information, not financial advice. A licensed financial adviser can recommend a fund for your circumstances.

Questions

Should I move to a conservative fund at 65?

Not necessarily. In our simulations the pay that holds in 9 of 10 markets was almost the same for conservative, balanced and growth funds. A conservative fund narrows the range of outcomes; a growth fund raises the typical one. The right choice depends on how you would cope with falls and when you need the money.

What return does my KiwiSaver statement assume after 65?

2.5% a year after fees and tax, for every fund type, with inflation of 2%. These are the government's Schedule 7A assumptions.

Is a growth fund too risky in retirement?

It is riskier in the short term, with a 1 in 20 year falling about 14% on our assumptions. But retirement can last 30 years, and money for your late 80s has time to recover. Many people hold a mix.

Where do your volatility figures come from?

They are our assumption, chosen to be broadly realistic for each fund type and shown on the methodology page. You can change them in every calculator.